Speaker
Description
The first biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario based model intercomparision found limitations with existing scenarios and models. Existing scenarios such as SSPs/RCPs do not explore all the policy options for positive environmental futures. In addition, large uncertainties exist in modelling the combined impacts of land-use and climate change. Here we will present a new model intercomparision project being carried out with a novel set of scenarios, the Nature Futures, and a wider range of models, several of them recently revised, the BES SIM 2. The Nature Futures is a new generation of scenarios being developed around positive futures for nature and people, in response to IPBES needs. A set of global narratives has been recently developed for three scenarios: Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. We will present these narratives and how they are being used to develop land-use projections at the global and sub-global scales using a range of land-use and IAM models. We will then present the protocol being developed to run biodiversity and ecosystem services models using these land-use projections.
| Status Group | Other |
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