Speaker
Description
The temperature increase predicted for the end of the 21st century will affect the distribution of biodiversity worldwide and impact natural resources and the availability of ecosystem services. Given the dependence of humans on certain species and the severity of environmental change, the effects may vary from region to region. The availability of timber is directly linked to the natural occurrence of specific tree species of high wood quality and regional abundance. Therefore, sustainable access to these resources depends, among other things, on how the changing climate will impact the characteristics of species´ current habitats. Understanding the effect of climate change on the distribution ranges of timber species may provide important insights into how to promote adaptation to regional changes in timber availability and sustainable management. In this project, we constructed species distribution models to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of suitable habitat of 98 important timber tree species in Nigeria. We used occurrence records as well as bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic variables to predict current and future (2041 to 2070) potential suitable habitats of the species. Our results show a major distribution of timber species in the southern forest and coastal regions of Nigeria, with precipitation of the wettest month being the most important factor influencing the distribution. In addition, the diversity of timber species is predicted to stay stable in the southern forest, while it is declining in the northern regions.
While some species lose most of their suitable habitat, others benefit and gain suitable habitat. Although southern forests are important not only for timber production but also for carbon sequestration, local climate regulation, biotic interactions, rapid deforestation and land degradation are currently occurring there, threatening the possibility of range shifts to compensate for habitat loss in the north.
| Status Group | Other |
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